what we do
Our focus is on the development of proprietary geodesic models that characterize the behavior of leveraged long/short ETFs in pairs trades using first principles of Hamilton-Lagrange-Euler mechanics. Because of tracking errors & daily compounding phenomena, equal weightings of leveraged ETFs in a pairs trade are virtually never 50-50. Daily data & graphics will show subscribers where neutral pair weightings have moved along the path of the pairs geodesic thereby providing multiple market direction & re-balance indicators.
Dear Blogger, thank you! again for subscribing to the S&P 500 long/short ETF Model and welcome to new members who just joined and new list subscribers. today's analysis is available for download:
ignore the missing data error message that may pop-up when opening up the file. Excel for Windows looks for metadata that Excel for Mac doesn't generate.
if you ever misplace your login, send me a message using the email you originally provided when subscribing through paypal. visit the blog for an archive of all subscriber updates and alerts. the archive is search-able and comments can be posted by everybody. | | | Today's Commentary
despite the late day small bear raid, the S&P 500 index continues to demonstrate there is an unusual amount of interest on the sidelines in buying equities. funds & fund managers who haven't gotten back into the market since the march-2009 lows are starting to feel heat for not participating. how long this will last is anyones guess. based on model parameters, the index looks like it ready to unleash a buch of pent up demand.
having said that, traders must maintain caution and it's still prudent to maintain a descent reserve of cash. for our purposes i still submit that 30% cash is safe and aggressive enough for aggressive model users. the market as a whole has to clear the Q2 GDP hurdle at 08:30 EST. if the report does not show that the rate of economic contraction has not significantly slowed or better stopped contracting altogether, the market is likely to take a dive. if the report is favorable, look for continued momentum to the upside for several weeks.
the market is still not trading on financial business fundamentals. earnings are in the tank and revenues are more scarce. however at this point it's all about the perception that the economy is poised for a recovery not too far in the future. so it appears the market is trading on hopes and dreams. it is what it is. that's why it's prudent to have a hedge on and cash ready to be deployed. patience is the key. trying to get ahead of the market could put you in a perilous predicament. the best strategy with this system is to be conservative and let the market decide who wins.
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| Dear Blogger,
money flow going into the S&P 500 has picked up considerably over the last week or so. even when the index had leveled off a few days here, money flow still increased.
what i believe we are seeing today is pent up demand to buy equities busting through their restraints. a lot of money not previously in market is now pouring in and pushing the index much higher.
expect this rage of money flow into the S&P 500 for several weeks with a few breathers like we had this week. i don't believe the economy is this much better, so anticipate there will be a reversal later in the year. for now, enjoy the ride.
pairs traders with conservative dispositions can still be rewarded. as i have been indicating in my updates, a 50:50 trade put on even today will still increase in value as long as SSO RSI is greater than SDS which it is at this moment. if not i will do my best to send out a timeley alert.
let the pair self adjust and drift upward. when your comfortable add a little more to SSO as frequently as freasible for trade cost considerations. you too will enjoy the ride up. keep a close eye on trade update commentarys and the data published in the spreadsheet.
cheers!
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Dear Blogger, thank you! again for subscribing to the S&P 500 long/short ETF Model and welcome to new members who just joined and new list subscribers. today's analysis is available for download:
ignore the missing data error message that may pop-up when opening up the file. Excel for Windows looks for metadata that Excel for Mac doesn't generate.
if you ever misplace your login, send me a message using the email you originally provided when subscribing through paypal. visit the blog for an archive of all subscriber updates and alerts. the archive is search-able and comments can be posted by everybody. | | | Today's Commentary
today the S&P 500 index closed down slightly from the previous close for the 3rd day in a row. as i'll show below, the magnitudes of the SDS-SSO geodesic parameters are still very high and still increasing but their rate of change reversed sign (direction) for the first time in about 10 trading days. this is NOT an indication of market direction change, but shows the rate of growth in the index has slowed. when the parameters rates of change cross, then we have a market direction change. llook at the velocity of vector-c (denoted diff-c) for example below. at the far right, you'll see a slight dip in the rate of change. market directions changes do not happen over night, but to walk a mile you have to take the first step. in order to signal a market direction change, diff-c would have to cross the x-axis. that's quite a ways down yet from here. the chart of both geodesic parameter rates of change shows the same thing. the data above in blue is the exact some data below shown in magenta. on an absolute scale, theta sees the largest rates of change. but the geodesic chart itself shows the coordinates extending further out on the curve, but at a slower rate mind you. the last yellow dot is where the parameters coordinates are today. the amount of arc-length traveled per day is still very high and needs to come in a lot more if this will be a credible pull-back in early stage of development.  my suggestion has been since monday to re-balance pairs trades to 50:50 and let it drift around for a few days until the market sorts itself out. no need to keep re-balancing to 50:50 if you've done it already. let the market decide who the winner will be and your pairs trade will bias itself in that direction. while it does this, the value of the pair will ultimately increase as the bias will have the higher RSI. if this does not materialize i will indicate so in a daily update or alert.
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Dear Blogger, thank you! again for subscribing to the S&P 500 long/short ETF Model and welcome to new members who just joined and new list subscribers. today's analysis is available for download:
ignore the missing data error message that may pop-up when opening up the file. Excel for Windows looks for metadata that Excel for Mac doesn't generate.
if you ever misplace your login, send me a message using the email you originally provided when subscribing through paypal. visit the blog for an archive of all subscriber updates and alerts. the archive is search-able and comments can be posted by everybody. | |
Today's Commentary
as subscribers will see, just about every metric & parameter i keep track of in the model has maxed out or is about to max out. from an EOD perspective, it looks like the S&P 500 index is taking a breather from the now storied meteoric rise of 2009. one of the only clues we have we are taking a slight breather is a flattening off of the index & an ever so slightly dip in the price in SSO. another new metric i've introduced is a measure of relative velocity between the rates of change of the 2 geodesic parameters, diif-c & diff-theta. levels in relative velocity is just below, magnitude-wise, the low of the october crash of 2008. here are some chants. the chart below is the comparison of the RSI of SDS & SSO. you can see the peaks, top & bottom, have curlled in some. the next chart is the new measure of relative velocity changes of diff-c & diff-theta. the last time the value of this metric was extended this far was during the october-november crash of 2008. one must ask, how far can this rally go? the only obvious answer is as far as it wants to. markets are not bound by measures as much as they are bound by sentiment. measures only say what sentiment was yesterday. to be on the conservative side with this hedge or trade, set you're pairs trade as close to 50:50 as possible and just let it drift from there a while. typiclally the value of the portfolio will be biased to whichever ETF has the highest RSI for a given day. while doing this you won't have to worry for a few days about being right or wrong with this hedge. but the trades are there already if the market decides to blast off again or rapidly change directions. stay cool and please have some cash on the sidelines. | | |
Dear Blogger, thank you! again for subscribing to the S&P 500 long/short ETF Model and welcome to new members who just joined and new list subscribers. today's analysis is available for download:
ignore the missing data error message that may pop-up when opening up the file. Excel for Windows looks for metadata that Excel for Mac doesn't generate.
if you ever misplace your login, send me a message using the email you originally provided when subscribing through paypal. visit the blog for an archive of all subscriber updates and alerts. the archive is search-able and comments can be posted by everybody. | |
Today's Commentary
the S&P 500 index waffled all over, albeit a relatively small range, to end up positive 0.3% for the day. there a cool-down may be on the near-term horizon. diff-theta & diff-c appear to be leveling off as well as the amplitude of vector-c. but don't under-estimate this market to move upward with incredible momentum. please make sure to ready the commentary for July 24, 2009. it would not hurt to go 50:50 for a few days while the market sorts itself out. currently SSO has higher RSI and changes throughout the day.
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Dear Blogger, thank you! again for subscribing to the S&P 500 long/short ETF Model and welcome to new members who just joined and new list subscribers. today's analysis is available for download:
ignore the missing data error message that may pop-up when opening up the file. Excel for Windows looks for metadata that Excel for Mac doesn't generate.
if you ever misplace your login, send me a message using the email you originally provided when subscribing through paypal. visit the blog for an archive of all subscriber updates and alerts. the archive is search-able and comments can be posted by everybody. | |
Today's Commentary WARNING!!!!.....WARNING!!!!
the SDS-SSO pairs trade model is topping out all kinds of parameter highs and some on the verge of being topped out. if we continue on this trajectory unabated, we're likely to become un-tethered to reality and we'll be "lost in space." here are some charts. the chart below entitled chart_geodesic_SDS-SSO_20090724 is a snapshot of where equilibrium is along the geodesic. the different colors represent different time series of data. the purple is the path the parameter coordinates carved out from about mar-9-09 to 6-15-09. march 9 started a the top right most purple dot, traced down to the apex of the curve and down symmetrically along the lower portion of the curve. june 15 is the last lower rightmost purple dot. then the blue dots represent the pull-back after june 15 to about july 15 which is masked by the leftmost yellow dot. that's when the market rallied and re-traced in yellow dots all the way back to where june 15 was in less than 1/2 the time the pull-back took. the spread of the points shows just how strong the upward motion in the S&P 500 index has been in the last 10 days. the chart below entitled chart_geodesic_parameters_rates_of_changes_20090724 provides the indicator when the index has changed direction that is from bullish to bearish & bearish to bullish. the crossovers at the x-axis are the indicators to change market sentiment. judgment and other techniques can tell you about the same thing. the trouble with most any system is being able to predict to a high level of certainty what the market will do next. but crossovers are conservative and are generally correct. another problem here is if the parameters cross each other, wiggle and cross each other again in short periods of time. this happened recently and back in january & february for certain. so crossovers can also be considered as no-man's land and the closer the parameters come to crossing each other, the less certainty of knowing short-term future market direction. things to be aware of as with any models boundaries. the chart below entitled chart_geodesic_diff-theta_vs_diff-c_20090724 is a scatter plot (just like the geodesic plot is a scatter plot of it's parameters) of the daily rate of change of the geodesic parameters data plotted w.r.t. each others. it's the same data above plotted independent of time. the color notation time-series-wise is the exact same as in the geodesic chart. the yellow dots started in the 2nd quadrant and followed a line basically through zero and are now extended way out in the 4th quadrant. besides the apparently linearity of the data, notice how much farther the yellow data extended along the x & y axis versus the farthest point of blue data indicating how much leverage has been put in the market. the final chart for this commentary entitled chart_vector-c_rates_of_change_20090724 is a time series plot of diff c defined as daily rate of change of geodesic parameter vector-c and it's daily rate of change defined as diff diif c. theta is the other geodesic parameter that has been scaled down for relative comparison. the data shows the weights of SDS & SSO are changing at there fastest rate going all the way back to late august-08. this rally has the october-november crash beat in magnitude and the march crash. note that highs of this nature have been followed by steep reversals. also note all the reverberation during october-november-08 a better part of 2 months to settle down. the february-march-09 event was less noisy but took about 2 months to settle down. since around early may-09, almost 3 months ago, events have been very erratic and building up intensity from peak to peak. quite a perilous time for buy & hold investors in my opinion. disclosures: i am currently 65% SSO & 35% SDS in all my pair trading accounts. will start selling SSO gradually from here until ratio is 50:50. | | |
Dear Blogger, thank you! again for subscribing to the S&P 500 long/short ETF Model and welcome to new members who just joined and new list subscribers. today's analysis is available for download:
ignore the missing data error message that may pop-up when opening up the file. Excel for Windows looks for metadata that Excel for Mac doesn't generate.
if you ever misplace your login, send me a message using the email you originally provided when subscribing through paypal. visit the blog for an archive of all subscriber updates and alerts. the archive is search-able and comments can be posted by everybody. | |
Today's Commentary
well, needless to say S&P 500 index is on a rocket somewhere. in my opinion, the index is at the outer limits and about ready to enter the twilight zone.
ok, enough subjective talk. the S&P 500 closed up 2.45%, the highest of the 3 major averages for today. S&P 500 RSI broke 70 for the first since as far as i can see. the amplitude of vector-c is virtually one trading day away from maxing out the high in the middle of june-09. diff c, the daily rate of change of the amplitude of vector-c has maxed out levels going past all the volatility in the last 12 months. the daily scatter plot coordinate of diff c vs diff theta is way out range in the 4th quandrant. so get ready for the first case of instant teleportation to the other side of the universe or this baby is going down.
either way, i am keeping my pairs trade as close to 50:50 as possible. i've let the ratio drift to 47 SDS & 53 SSO & then re-balancing back to 50:50 by buying the weakest ETF. this keeps your gains safe and if there is a sudden ride down, probability is higher that SDS will change faster than SSO. this means the pair will still increase in value. that's why it's so important to keep plenty of cash available. be very careful out there!
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Dear Blogger, thank you! again for subscribing to the S&P 500 long/short ETF Model and welcome to new members who just joined and new list subscribers. today's analysis is available for download:
ignore the missing data error message that may pop-up when opening up the file. Excel for Windows looks for metadata that Excel for Mac doesn't generate.
if you ever misplace your login, send me a message using the email you originally provided when subscribing through paypal. visit the blog for an archive of all subscriber updates and alerts. the archive is search-able and comments can be posted by everybody. | |
Today's Commentary
another wavering day for the S&P 500 index. the index closed essentially unchanged down 0.05% for the day. the index has taken a breather over the last two trading days from it's historic 6 or 7 day meteoric rise. momentum upward measured by arc-length traveled along the geodesic has not abated which indicates lag in the model from using 12 day moving averages in rices changes. however acceleration of the geodesic parameters coordinates has leveled off. as stated in yesterday's commentary, there appears to be more room for upward movement in the S&P 500 but margin maybe shrinking faster than anticipated yesterday.
for very conservative hedgers, this is probably a good time to sell SSO or re-balance your portfolio to 50:50 before the re-balance signal is indicated. it is no recommended any longer for conservative users of this pairs trade strategy to re-balance pairs to the neutral weights computed by the model. reason being those weights are changing on a daily basis and can actually make portfolios appear unstable. isn't that's what the neutral weighted data was for? initially that was the conservative hedge strategy prior to the development of the geodesic characterization.
before or after a market direction changes are called, typically the numerator of the fraction grows faster than the denominator. as a result the value of the pair increases as the geodesic coordinates move in the opposite direction along the path. gains are smaller this way, but much more forgiving if the market waffles before taking a decided direction.
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Dear Blogger, thank you! again for subscribing to the S&P 500 long/short ETF Model and welcome to new members who just joined and new list subscribers. today's analysis is available for download:
ignore the missing data error message that may pop-up when opening up the file. Excel for Windows looks for metadata that Excel for Mac doesn't generate.
if you ever misplace your login, send me a message using the email you originally provided when subscribing through paypal. visit the blog for an archive of all subscriber updates and alerts. the archive is search-able and comments can be posted by everybody. | | | Today's Commentary
the S&P 500 index weaved & bobbed to close up 0.36%. the index has not had this much bullish momentum since june-01-09 measured by the daily difference between today's & yesterday's diff-c geodesic values. this delta value measures the distance (arc length) traveled along the geodesic path in one day.
as a matter of academics, this illustrates the non-linear relationship between price momentum changes and path momentum changes. we're on the portion of the geodesic path where small changes in price are amplified in terms of distance traveled along the geodesic. this relationship changes as the geodesic coordinates are moving on the path closer to the apex. around the apex, price changes approach a 1:1 relationship with daily arch-length changes. the reason for this non-linearity is the long-term compounding effects in the ETFs. compounding effects do not cancel each out when trading leveraged ETFs in a pairs trade.
now having said all this, the model indicates there's more room for the index to go higher. there's a good likely hood the index will go higher judging the sentiment over earnings. clearly there are always potholes in the road but there is room to go higher. watch levels in the amplitude of vector-c. current level is measured at 0.7446. it has room to go to 0.7600 before i'll raise the yellow flags. assuming current rates of momentum, that time frame may be 7 - 10 trading away from today.
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Dear Blogger, thank you! again for subscribing to the S&P 500 long/short ETF Model and welcome to new members who just joined and new list subscribers. today's analysis is available for download:
ignore the missing data error message that may pop-up when opening up the file. Excel for Windows looks for metadata that Excel for Mac doesn't generate.
if you ever misplace your login, send me a message using the email you originally provided when subscribing through paypal. visit the blog for an archive of all subscriber updates and alerts. the archive is search-able and comments can be posted by everybody. | | | Today's Commentary
the S&P 500 index continued it's upward momentum by closing up 1.14% & now closing at it's highest levels since Q4 2008. the amount of arc-length equilibrium covers along the geodesic path per day is increasing day by day. the model is now indicating a strengthening bullish bias to SSO.
remember, equilibrium is the point at which the weightings of SDS & SSO are adjusted to maintain a delta neutral as compounding & slippage of the ETFs change over a 12 day trading period of time. the weightings account for the uneven ETF time rates of price change over the said period of time.
the geodesic is a symmetric graphical representation of 2 parameters associated with the change in weights. 2 parameters are quantified from the data and defined as the geodesic parameters. those two parameters for this model are the amplitude of vector-c, sometimes denoted as ||vector-c||, and the angle theta.
in classical mechanics, geodesics are useful characterizations of systems which are multi-variable in nature where these variables change at varying rates. the geodesic then can be thought of as the path the variables follow that stipulates the least amount of change per variable to maintain equilibrium if the system is pertured. in our case, the 2 variables are the weights of SDS & SSO in a pairs trade and their corresponding time rates of change in price.
once we have this data, system equilibrium is defined to move along a specific path or surface. in our case, the path is curved line in the shape of a parabola shape which is symmetrical about an axis of rotation; again in our case the x-axis. since we have acquired enough data of closing ETF prices over several years, the path of the geodesic is empirically derived without the need to solve partial differential equations.
another useful bit of information is knowing the time rate of change of the geodesic parameters. when plotted against time, this data is very useful to indicate when the system is changing direction and at what rate. when those 2 rates meet each other, they will always meet at the x-axis. this is because the system parameters have the mathematical roots. in addition, when these parameters are plotted in a scatter plot (which is all the geodesic curve is), the data reveals 4 quadrants which indicates more clearly what the system is doing as rates change. so there is another level of refinement of understanding the behavior of the system using geodesic data.
the bullish bias is strengthening because the amount of arc-length traveled per day along the geodesic is increasing. see the chart entitled chart_vector-c_rates_of_change_20090720 and the variable denoted as diff c. this is the variable to watch, in addition to diff theta, that measures the increase or decrease in momentum, in our case the momentum of the S&P 500 index. this is not to be confused with other technical analysis momentum indicators. however, they should point in the same general direction.
keep a reason amount of cash on the sidelines in case market sentiment suddenly changes. besides selling, the additional cash can be used to change your pair trade bias to help mitigate loss of capital. | | |
Dear Blogger, thank you! again for subscribing to the S&P 500 long/short ETF Model and welcome to new members who just joined and new list subscribers. today's analysis is available for download:
ignore the missing data error message that may pop-up when opening up the file. Excel for Windows looks for metadata that Excel for Mac doesn't generate.
if you ever misplace your login, send me a message using the email you originally provided when subscribing through paypal. visit the blog for an archive of all subscriber updates and alerts. the archive is search-able and comments can be posted by everybody. | | | Today's Commentary
on better than expected Q2 earnings reports from banks & better than expected outlooks for 2009 reporting from tech companies, markets exploded upward this week for one of the best 1 week performances for the year. the S&P 500 index was a beneficiary closing up 6.97% for the week.
with regard to the SDS-SSO S&P 500 index model, there's a couple of things to be watchful of. the 12 day MAs of the standard deviations for SDS & SSO are still very low relative to levels during index breakouts up or down over the last 12 - 18 months . what this means to me is both ETFs are leveled off in a trading range. see the 12 DMA STDEV chart in the spreadsheet. if we're going to breakout up or down, i expect to see these numbers to jump up.
another thing to take note of is a right shoulder of a head-n-shoulders pattern is forming in the chart of vector-c amplititude vs. time. historically, these patterns have been muted but discernible. the left shoulder formed 2 months ago and the new right shoulder may be getting ready to top out if it hasn't already. remember, data to determine the geodesic coordinates and so forth are based on 12 DMAs. the model will always have a little lag relative to actual timing of events.
finally, the geodesic parameter chart and the time rate of change of the geodesic parameters scatter plot are not in breakout mode as yet. they are still within recent levels since about the second week in june. therefore the model still indicates a mild bullish bias to SSO.
the geodesic coordinates are still moving in a bullish direction at an even pace but their location is nowhere near the end of the path from just a few weeks ago. considering the S&P 500 index levels are near the highs of the year, you have to wonder whether this recent run up is in a right shoulder formation process (i.e. about to go down) or we are just at the beginning of a new move upwards. the next 7 - 10 trading days will be very telling.
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Dear Blogger, thank you! again for subscribing to the S&P 500 long/short ETF Model and welcome to new members who just joined and new list subscribers. today's analysis is available for download:
ignore the missing data error message that may pop-up when opening up the file. Excel for Windows looks for metadata that Excel for Mac doesn't generate.
if you ever misplace your login, send me a message using the email you originally provided when subscribing through paypal. visit the blog for an archive of all subscriber updates and alerts. the archive is search-able and comments can be posted by everybody. | | | Today's Commentary
the S&P 500 index ran flat from the open to about 1:30 PM EST and continued it's rapid pace upward. at the EOD, model data reflected this movement by continuing the mild bullish bias started yesterday.
geodesic coordinates are moving toward the tail of the path in a fairly orderly fashion. data coordinates plotted in the diff-theta vs diff-c scatter plot established it's second point in this new series of data in the 4th quadrant. yesterday i expressed some concern with that, but this is actually consistent with the motion illustrated in the geodesic plot. as the index advances, the amplitude of vector-c increase while the angle is decreasing in this part of the cycle. i'll have to break this behavior down further in special commentary all it's own.
expect the S&P 500 index to advance again tomorrow. how long this advance continues is not known. however, look at the chart of the amplitude of vector-c. looks like a right shoulder emerging, doesn't it? not exactly symmetrical, but that's what it looks like. this indicates to me we're going against a larger overall trend. this could potentially persist for a while. but it's just putting the inevitable further down the road. at the same time, this could be a reflection of a much larger run up in the index than anticipated. we'll see.
for now, it's probably safe for a while to be biased to SSO in your pairs trade. safety also precludes keeping a reasonable amount of cash on the side lines. around 1/3 of the overall holding is probably a good number at this point in the cycle. if the advance continues to explode, it's reasonable to say a lower percentage of cash is natural. of course that decision is always yours to make. | | |
Dear Blogger, thank you! again for subscribing to the S&P 500 long/short ETF Model and welcome to new members who just joined and new list subscribers. today's analysis is available for download:
ignore the missing data error message that may pop-up when opening up the file. Excel for Windows looks for metadata that Excel for Mac doesn't generate.
if you ever misplace your login, send me a message using the email you originally provided when subscribing through paypal. visit the blog for an archive of all subscriber updates and alerts. the archive is search-able and comments can be posted by everybody. | | | Today's Commentary
as expected with the explosive move up of the S&P 500 index, the model now indicates a mild bullish bias. the erratic behavior of the index over the last 10 trading days or so has been mirrored by the model with several flip-flop market direction change indications. this is usually a sign of indecisive interest in the market. are we going up or down? that kind of thing. though the market exploded higher today, it's still unclear to me how many legs this upswing has. but for now, the trend is certainly upward.
the yellow square dots in the geodesic charts represents parameter coordinate movement during this upward motion in the index. the direction of movement is away from the apex out to the end of the lower portion of the path. the scatter plot of the parameters 1st order time rate of change shows a coordinate move into the 4th quandrant which means the amplitude of the wave change is positive but angular velocity is negative. the full implication of this is not clear other than the run up in the index has slightly different characteristics. apparently there are forces pulling the index to equilbrium (back toward the apex) or this is a transient effect of the change in market direction change. it's more like the latter i fell but we'll see.
hopefully readers have some cash to put to work incase this optimism becomes euphoric. it's not clear if the index will pop tomorrow as high as it did today or at all. but more key earnings reports in the next few days are likely to beat wall street forecasts.
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Disclaimer
Equity Informatics is a developer and service provider of proprietary financial equity pricing models & trading methods. The company familiarizes subscribers with the basic thesis of our models, provides subscribers with daily neutral pair weightings and methodologies on how to use the data as intended. subscribers shall not share any information obtained from equity informatics with any other party. use of these services are granted only to and intended for the benefit of the subscriber. Equity Informatics does not offer the sale of equities nor do our trading models constitute trading advise. It is incumbent on potential clients to perform due diligence and seek a professional financial adviser to help you determine whether subscribing to the company's services are suitable for your financial situation and level of risk. No guarentees of performance are expressly or implicitly offered nor does Equity Informatics guarantee the accuracy of market information used to provide model data to our client. equity informatics does not assume responsibility for lost principal, lost gains or tax consequences.
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