SDS-SSO Model Weekly Stats - May 11 thru May 15, 2009

Dear Blogger, as indicated in the summary of stats below, the S&P 500 index ended the week down with increased volatility for the week. the S&P has closed 8 up weeks out of the last 10 since the market lows in early MARCH. several model indicators are pointing to weaker performance in the S&P 500. 1) the pid-5 PID tuning chart is looking to cross it's x-axis. 2) the SDS-SSO polarity chart is pointing toward a flip in ETF relative strengths backed up by the SDS-SSO RSI chart. 3) the proportional band in the PID-7 tuning chart has crossed it's x-axis. 4) the first derivative of the PID-5 tuning chart is approaching zero from positive territory. 5) SDS & SSO neutral weights are very close to annual all time extreme values 10 weeks after the last extreme at the low. despite all these indications, the model still hasn't technically called for a re-balance as of friday 2009-05-15. also, the S&P 500 has made these similar indications 4 times already since the market low only to be a head-fake and began moving right back up instead of following through on indications. that's all technical analysis is: indications. however, this time the S&P 500 index has demonstrably moved down with an increase in volatility in the VIX. this week we may see continuation of a long awaited pullback in the preceding "bear market rally." my course action will be to take a slightly bearish stance relative to the neutral weightings - that is a slight over-weight in SDS. that would be a weighting of about 65% SDS and 35% SSO. this is a good weight distribution to start with if the market does march downward. if this scenario unfolds, the pair weighting of SDS will automatically increase itself to minimize risk if the other scenario takes shape. ---SDS-SSO ultra scenario weekly stats --------------------------- * ultra tracking portfolio DOWN 7.88% for the week * ultra benchmark DOWN 7.78% for the week * ultra tracking portfolio UP 4.71% since inception 2009-04-28 ---S&P 500 Index weekly stats ------------------------------------ * DOWN 4.99% for the week * MFI finished nearly unchanged at 52.72 on a daily basis * RSI finished DOWN for the week to 52.72 from 68.18 on a daily basis * volume finished DOWN for the week to 2590891 * 62.63 pts (6.62%) BELOW it's 200 DMA * 50.93 pts (6.12%) ABOVE it's 50 DMA ---CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) weekly stats ---------------------- * UP 3.34% for the week * 10.64 pts ( 24.31%) BELOW it's 200 DMA * 5.83 pts (14.96%) BLEOW it's 50 DMA * RSI UP 43% from recent lowest level in early JAN-09 MFI - money flow index RSI - relative strength index PID-5 benchmark YTD performance record for neutral & ultra scenarios PID-7 benchmark YTD performance record for neutral & ultra scenarios perfromance an actual ultra portfolio of SDS & SSO vs. a spectrum of benchmarks explanation of legend in chart above: ultra benchmark - models analytical backtest performance trading SDS & SSO using the ultra weighted scenario ultra portfolio - performance of an actual portfolio of SDS & SOO tracking the ultra benchmark s&p 500 - performance of the S&P 500 index balanced neutral - models analytical backtest performance trading SDS & SSO using the neutral weighted scenario un-balanced - models analytical backtest perfromance trading SDS & SSO in a totally open-loop scenario (i.e. no re-balancing and no reset to neutral) QAI - the performance of the IQ Hedge Multi-Strategy Tracker ETF. click to see the fund profile as stated on yahoo! finance. best regards, mike james Managing Member Equity Informatics, LLC phone:302-220-3864